Barack Obama is president of the United States. He’s raised and spent a gazillion dollars telling the nation what a low-life reprobate Mitt Romney is. His campaign operatives play by Chicago rules; in other words, brass knuckle/knee to the groin politics. And it appears the incumbent’s party is comfortably ahead in early voting turnout.
The all-powerful Democrat incumbent hasn’t been able to put the Republican challenger away.
On the eve of Election Day, the two are virtually tied, with neither having what anyone would call “Big Mo’.” As such, conventional wisdom says the incumbent is going to be re-elected by a whisker.
Don’t bet the farm on it.
I’m going to go out on a limb here – and if I’m wrong it won’t be the first or last time. But I think Romney is going to win this thing going away tomorrow. Here’s why…
I don’t believe the polls. ANY of the polls. For three reasons:
1.) Some are amateurishly conducted; interviewing people who simply will not be turning out to vote or “over-sampling” one demographic or another.
2.) Most pollsters, thanks to cell phones, aren’t reaching many of the people who actually WILL be turning out.
3.) Many voters have become a lot more sophisticated about responding to polls and are being either tactically misleading or are outright lying for a variety of reasons.
And yes, to a certain degree, race is one of those reasons…just not in the way the Hosford-like race-hustlers would have you believe.
The truth is a lot of white voters – unfairly and wrongly saddled with the “guilt of slavery” on their innocent consciences since birth – in fact voted FOR Barack Obama in 2008 simply because he was black (reverse racism?). It was a way for them to “prove,” if just to themselves, that they weren’t racists.
But this time around, many of those same white voters – mostly independents and Democrats, but a few Republicans – will NOT be voting for the president. NOT because he’s black, but because he’s a failure.
They’re scared to death to say so publicly out of fear of being accused of being a racist again. So they’re either saying nothing, or they’re saying one thing but will do another in the privacy of the voting booth.
And if this is true, then even though more Democrats have voted in early/absentee voting than Republicans, a lot of those white Democrats didn’t vote for Obama. So the perceived Democrat advantage in early/absentee voting could be one massive electoral mirage.
For other Democrats, race has absolutely nothing to do with their voting decision. They either like Romney or don’t like Obama for all manner of reasons other than race. Regardless, as Democrats who won’t be voting for the Democrat candidate, you can bet they’re not sticking their necks out publicly by telling fellow Democrats they’re not voting for the Democrat.
Indeed, Las Vegas Democrat blogger Mike Zahara – who supported Obama four years ago, but is catching hell for not backing him again this year – revealed exactly what I’m talking about in a column he published yesterday:
“…(I)t took me 25 years to publicly admit that I voted for Reagan’s second term because he did what he said he would do. And because I was in Democrat positions, I couldn’t publicly admit that then, and regular readers know this about me.”
I guarantee you there are a lot of Democrat leaders and activists out there who are in the exact same position this year that Zahara found himself in back in 1984. They’re giving Obama lip service, but once the curtains are closed….
And then there are other Democrats who know and fully understand the following reality:
If Obama is re-elected there will be no incentive for businesses to expand and go on a hiring spree. None whatsoever. Another four years of fear and retrenchment. His re-election will be akin to the arrival of Dementors over Hogwarts. The business owner’s objective will be to simply hang on, keep his or her head above water if at all possible, and survive to profit another day.
If Mitt Romney is elected on Tuesday, everybody with an IQ above my age (53) knows that a REAL job-producing economic revival like we’ve never seen will begin first thing Wednesday morning. It’ll be a thing to behold! You know it. I know it. And a lot of Democrats – including many who are right now unemployed despite Obama’s “stimulus” – know it.
Oh, and don’t think for a minute that the Benghazi fuster-cluck…despite the mainstream media blackout of the scandal and cover-up…hasn’t become a major issue for a large number of Americans.
I’m telling you folks, there are a LOT of Democrats and independents who have gone into and will be going into voting booths quietly voting for Mitt Romney…or at the very least, NOT voting for Barack Obama. No matter what the polls are saying.
And mark my words, this new version of Richard Nixon’s “silent majority” is going to result in Romney winning the Electoral College tomorrow night by 300 votes or more.
In fact, the media might even be calling this race for Romney before the polls close in Nevada!